Connor: Where could the Rays end up?

There are plenty of cities that could handle an MLB team

Robert Giroux / Getty Images file

Is Vancouver a legitimate future destination for the?Rays?

By Joe Connor

NBCSports.com contributor

updated 2:50 a.m. ET Feb. 23, 2012

As a freelance sports writer, I?ve been lucky enough to enjoy a game at every MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL venue, plus hundreds of college and minor league sites. And while I?m no economist or prognosticator, I can envision MLB leaving St. Petersburg, Fla. come the 2028 season, if not sooner.

But where? There are three sets of questions to ask when discussing MLB relocation.

1. Factor: Population Size.

How big is the metropolitan area? In MLB, size matters. Of the 30 current MLB teams, only seven are located in markets with less than 3 million people in their respective greater metropolitan areas, according to the 2010 U.S. Census (Cleveland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Kansas City and Milwaukee). Small markets that host an NHL and NBA team might be able to get away with it because they play only half as many home games than the 81 games baseball teams do, plus MLB facilities are two to three times bigger, so more fannies can be in the seats.

In the U.S. and Canada, there?s only one market in the U.S. and Canada without an MLB team and a metropolitan population greater than three million: Montreal (3.82 million). That doesn?t necessarily mean MLB wouldn?t relocate to a market with less than 3 million. Milwaukee, MLB?s smallest market at 1.75 million, had the seventh highest attendance in 2011, drawing more than 3 million fans. Cincinnati drew more than 2 million and Pittsburgh came close to that mark. But unlike Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are two of the oldest franchises in MLB, which leads us to ...

2. Factor: Population Makeup.

This category requires four very key questions:

A) Are there a lot of transplants in the market, or are most of the residents natives?

One of the reasons the Rays fail to draw is because many of the residents of Tampa-St. Petersburg were born elsewhere. These fans go to Tropicana Field to see the Red Sox, Yankees or other teams because that?s where there true affiliation lies. So one key question to ask about relocation is how many of the residents are natives with no tie to an MLB team? That question also leads to ?

B) How far is the market from another MLB city and where do affiliates lie amongst the fans?

Two U.S. regions that have been cited in economic studies as ready to support an MLB team are Northern New Jersey and the Inland Empire section of Los Angeles, namely, Riverside-San Bernardino. There?s just one key problem these studies don?t take into account ? just how close these markets are to existing MLB teams. It?s extremely unrealistic to think sports fans in the suburbs of New York City are going to stop rooting for the Yankees and Mets, franchises they?ve grown up supporting for generations. Ditto for Southern Californians where fans have a long-time affinity to the Dodgers, Angels and Padres.

C) What kinds of people live here?

Every market is unique. In some markets, sports teams are an integral part of the fabric of the community (like in St. Louis and Milwaukee) while others get labeled as ?lousy sports towns? and rightfully so. For example, were it not for its sheer population size, it?s uncertain if MLB would even have a team in Miami, Atlanta or Toronto. Baseball will always come second in these cities, not first. Hockey rules in Canada and college football dominates the South. And even when these teams are good, sellouts are not a guarantee. Remember the Braves' run of 14 straight National League East crowns? There were Division Series games in which plenty of seats were empty. If MLB were to relocate, it would need to ensure the market has a strong culture of supporting its sports teams, but especially baseball, which leads us to ?

D) What?s the baseball history in the community like?

This is vitally important, especially for smaller markets seeking MLB?s attention. For example, does the market have a strong amateur program that has actually produced big leaguers? Has the market ranked among the top in Minor League Baseball attendance?

3. Final Key Factor: TV Landscape, Corporate Sponsorships and Regional Marketing

This is huge in baseball. With teams playing practically every day over a long 162-game season, reaching a large television audience is integral to a franchise?s success. The Brewers, for example, had the third highest television MLB viewership in 2011, according to Nielsen ratings, with only the Phillies and Cardinals with a larger per game TV audience. Although based in Milwaukee, the Brewers have statewide appeal across Wisconsin.

When the Rays eventually depart the Costco of MLB in 16 years, if not sooner, here are 10 markets in which the Rays might land, from most likely to least likely:

advertisement

More news

Nationals on the rise

??With Stephen Strasburg anchoring a strong rotation and super-prospect Bryce Harper on the way, the Washington Nationals are drawing a lot of attention.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/46477287/ns/sports-baseball/

rich rodriguez rich rodriguez the muppet movie the muppet movie mars rover mars rover trent richardson